NFL picks against the spread for Week 5…
Game of Midweek: Buccaneers at Falcons (-2, 43.5 o/u)
This is a sneaky revenge game for Falcons coach Raheem Morris, who once held that same job for the Buccaneers. He has his pass defense playing well with reinforcements on the pass rush and secondary. The Bucs have sprung more leaks than usual under their defensive-minded coach, Todd Bowles, as their run defense is a weakness. With Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons can exploit that well, more so than the Bucs vs. an even weaker run defense.
Pick: Falcons win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: Cowboys at Steelers (-2, 43 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Steelers like to be relentless with their running game, especially with Justin Fields now a big part of it. The Cowboys fixed the run defense big-time against the Giants and can contain another sputtering attack. The Steelers will be fine if this game turns into a physical grind, knowing their pass rush can rebound vs. a maligned, transitional Cowboys’ offensive line. Dallas will have trouble keeping Pittsburgh honest with the run, allowing an angry T.J. Watt & Co. to tee off back at home.
Pick: Steelers win 20-16 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: 49ers (-7.5, 50.5 o/u) over Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers have gotten Brock Purdy revved up as a downfield passer, unlocking more deep weapons even with Brandon Aiyuk pouting into shaky production. The Cardinals’ defense cannot stop the run and will struggle with another offense that can spread the ball around in the middle of the field. Kyler Murray is slumping, and seeing Nick Bosa and this front on the road won’t bust it.
Pick: 49ers win 31-14 and cover the spread.
